MIAMI — ‘X’ now marks not just one spot, but two spots again in the Atlantic Basin tropics, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has added a new potential tropical disturbance to monitor for developments emerging off the west coast of Africa on Thursday evening.
That system is currently just a disorganized area of thunderstorms, but atmospheric conditions indicate the potential for slow development through the middle of next week as it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic, the NHC said. The agency currently estimates the chances of development at 20 percent over the next seven days.
Meanwhile, the chances of developing a tropical wave, which is already about halfway across the Atlantic and has been under the watchful eye of the NHC for several days, have increased again.
Thunderstorms remain disorganized through Thursday night, but the NHC says storms have become more concentrated near the axis. And environmental conditions appear to be better for the system to gradually develop to the point that a tropical depression could develop early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC currently estimates the chance of the disruption developing in the next two days as very low. However, the chance of the disruption developing in the next week has now been increased to 50%.
“The disturbance is moving slower than many systems we are tracking in the tropical Atlantic, so it will take until the weekend before it reaches the Caribbean,” FOX Weather’s hurricane specialist said Bryan Norcross“Some computer forecasts still show the system moving across the islands as a storm-force wave of moisture, but some now predict it will develop into an organized tropical depression or tropical storm.”
But until the system has a more coherent center, it will be difficult to make consistent predictions using computer-generated projections.
“Everyone in the Eastern and Northeastern Caribbean should prepare to stay informed over the weekend,” Norcross said“If the system can organize to a reasonable degree over the next few days, the atmospheric pattern near the islands and through the Caribbean appears conducive to development. A significant tropical storm or hurricane could develop.”
Source original article: Chances for tropical storm development in Caribbean increase as new disturbance is monitored in Atlantic