BEIRUT (AP) — The heavy firefights between Hezbollah and the Israeli army leads to fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are much greater than in 2006, when a months-long war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has been struggling for years with political and economic crises which left the country in debt, without a stable electricity supply, without a proper banking system and with great poverty.
And since Hezbollah’s military power is significantly larger, there are concerns that a new war could erupt. much more destructive and extended.
Can Lebanon afford all that?
Plans for a repeat of the 2006 war – or worse
Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other on Oct. 7, a day after the war between Israel and Hamas began in Gaza, the conflict has been largely contained to border towns. But with the threat of wider war looming, Lebanon has rushed to supply hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open to people seeking shelter.
A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a senior Hezbollah commander prompted a flurry of meetings between humanitarian organizations and the Lebanese government, according to Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of the international aid group Mercy Corps. It is one of about 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies this month drew up a comprehensive response plan outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation similar to the 2006 war, which would displace an estimated 250,000 people, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displace at least 1 million people.
The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, calls for monthly costs of $50 million in the event of a limited escalation and $100 million if all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government said funding for the emergency would come from creditors and humanitarian aid groups. But authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 displaced people and an estimated 60,000 people living in conflict zones, costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is leading the relief effort, told reporters after an emergency government meeting on Sunday that this morning’s attacks would not change plans.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could arise, including an expansion of hostilities,” Yassin said.
Debt-ridden and cash-strapped Lebanon is desperate for aid money
Decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functioning, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private owners of diesel generators and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid agencies and international donors to function at a minimal level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort now receive food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the economy was further hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Beirut port explosion paralyzing neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and ruling elite resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout, while infrastructure continued to deteriorate and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which the government had been counting on to rebuild the economy, has also taken a hit since the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon now hosts more than 1 million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told AP earlier this month that Lebanon’s health system is ill-equipped to handle the additional population in the event of an all-out war as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half of the money it needed to address the conflict and resulting humanitarian needs.
Lebanon faces stricter logistics
In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, rendering it largely inoperable, and imposed an air and sea blockade. The bombardment crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, causing $3.1 billion in damage and losses, according to the World Bank.
But eventually, aid agencies were able to send supplies through the country’s ports and sometimes through its airport, using the limited remaining runway space. In its assessment of the war, the UN said its relief efforts were not intended to respond to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.
Many Lebanese have been able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising in 2011 plunged the country into civil war. It is unclear how easy it will be to cross the border this time, for both civilians and aid organizations.
It is also unclear whether Beirut’s port, which has yet to be fully rebuilt after a devastating explosion in 2020, would have sufficient capacity in the event of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022 and the country is reliant on minimal food storage amid its financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has food and fuel supplies for two to three months, but what happens after this period?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we cannot transport things across our borders. It would be difficult to bring things into the country.”
A Mighty Hezbollah
In 2006, Hezbollah was said to have had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number is almost tenfold,” said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy Control Risks.
The group has also acquired “more advanced weapons, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian weapons, as well as Chinese and Russian weapons,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iranian-backed allied groups that could join the conflict, has also significantly expanded its drone arsenal and capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that an elusive ceasefire agreement in Gaza will bring calm to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.
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Ali Sharafeddine, Associated Press videographer, contributed to this report.
