When Narendra Modi set his sights on a landslide victory – 400 of the 543 seats for his alliance – few scoffed at the ambition.
After all, the Indian Prime Minister and his BJP have been a largely unstoppable force since they came to power a decade ago.
But while Mr Modi and his alliance are on course to win a majority, it is not quite the unassailable victory he and his allies envisioned when the counting began this morning.
Below, BBC correspondents in India give their views on why we’ve achieved results few expected – and what this could mean for the world’s largest democracy in the future.
Questions about the use of the ‘Hindu card’ as a campaign tool
Religion is a factor in every Indian election, and this one was no different.
Mr Modi inaugurated a Hindu temple in January at a controversial site that has been the subject of dispute between Hindus and Muslims. This was expected to give his party a major boost during the elections.
But no one expected the BJP’s campaign to be as polarizing as it was — or that some of the most aggressive comments would come from the very top.
At a campaign rally in April, Mr. Modi said: “When their (opposition Congress) government was in power, they said Muslims have the first right to the country’s wealth. This means they collect the wealth and give it to whom? For those who have many children. To infiltrators.”
Some analysts interpreted the comment as an attempt by Modi to strengthen his conservative Hindu base.
But looking at the results from some key constituencies – the BJP candidate lost in the temple town of Ayodhya – this does not appear to have had the desired effect.
Questions are now being raised about the use of the Hindu card as a campaign tool, especially as it appears to have done the opposite: uniting Muslim minorities against the BJP.
‘Brand Modi is starting to fray’
Marketing consultants have attributed Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and incisive messaging.
“He strikes a deep chord with his aura of clarity and strength, speaks simultaneously of fears and ambitions, communicates using emotionally resonant metaphors, understands the power of branding key initiatives to generate a sense of activity and purpose and knows the power of enigmatic silence. ” wrote Santosh Desai, a well-known brand consultant, in 2017.
Over the years, Modi has also sold himself as a cultural icon who appeals to a diverse population both at home and abroad, cementing his status as an influential leader in Indian politics. A weak opposition and largely friendly media helped him build his brand. “He’s pop culture in 70% of this country,” one brand consultant said at a conclave last year.
No longer. As the results of the general elections show, Brand Modi is starting to falter. Modi has never underperformed and has won less than a majority in all the elections he has contested so far.
It’s been different this time. Tuesday’s results show that some of the shine has worn off and even Mr. Modi is not immune to the vagaries of anti-incumbency.
6,000 kilometer long opposition march of ‘galvanized party cadres’
Since the formation of the opposition INDIA Alliance, a grouping of more than 20 parties, in July 2023, the Modi-led government has portrayed it as a gang of self-serving leaders bent on personally attacking Mr Modi and destroying the country. destroy.
While leaders of the ruling BJP, along with most analysts and pollsters, had been predicting an easy victory for Modi for months, the Congress-led opposition bloc continued to emphasize rural distress, inflation in its messaging and public rallies and rampant unemployment.
“The Constitution is in danger” and the country’s “democratic institutions are under attack” under a “divisive” Mr. Modi was their rallying cry.
A 6,700-km march by senior Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, which began months before the elections, was heavily panned for its timing, but analysts believe it had galvanized supporters and party cadres.
The opposition also expanded its reach on social media and aggressively took on the BJP, which has long dominated India’s digital landscape.
Modi’s welfare programs compete with ‘better connection’ with voters in southern India
Mr Modi’s BJP is still struggling to make a major impact in southern India, although its vote share is expected to increase.
In 2019 alone, the party won 25 seats in Karnataka. But this time the party will lose at least 10 seats in the same state to the Congress party.
It is poised to double the four seats it won in Telangana and a few seats in Andhra Pradesh due to its alliance with the regional Telugu Desam Party, led by the IT industry-friendly Chandrababu Naidu.
In Tamil Nadu, the regional DMK-led alliance is poised to repeat its 2019 performance with a clean sweep.
And in Kerala, the communist government and the Congress-led front appear to have kept the BJP out of the Lok Sabha.
In short, the development-oriented social services of the non-BJP parties appear to be more in line with the aspirations of voters in the South.
So what’s next? Result could force Modi to ‘slow down’
Mr. Modi projected himself as the voice of the Global South – a leader who served as a bridge between the developing world and the developed world.
The Indian Prime Minister’s global weight was based on the enormous support he received at home. He provided a sense of continuity for world leaders and alliances.
Modi will now lead a coalition government. He is likely to have bipartisan support on foreign policy, but he will need to confide in allies before making crucial decisions that affect global politics.
That could force him to slow down and adopt a more consultative decision-making policy.
So far, India has put its policy of strategic autonomy in foreign affairs into practice in a challenging manner, and that is unlikely to change.
But what will change is Modi’s ability to make quick decisions on global affairs – something he often did without consulting his own allies or the opposition.
The coalition government would be a litmus test for Modi
Be it as Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat or as Prime Minister in his last two terms, Narendra Modi has led a full majority BJP government. Coalition partners did come to lend a hand, but the future of the government was never in their hands.
The current numbers clearly indicate that the BJP is short of majority support, which means Modi will seek support from allies. He has become accustomed to leading a centralized government and party under him, which will have to change taking into account the new reality.
He will have to take the concerns and sensitivities of coalition partners much more into account and that will not be easy for him, noted an analyst.
India is not new to coalition politics, but coalition governments are often prone to instability. So, it would be a litmus test for both Mr. Modi and the BJP on their adaptability to a changed scenario.
