Starmer returns to campaign basics after a tough first 100 days

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(Bloomberg) — When Keir Starmer convened his new top team in Downing Street on Monday morning, there was little sign of the drama that had forced his new government into an embarrassing reset hours earlier. A subdued Prime Minister made an introduction, telling aides to “get on with it.”

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But what Starmer, who will be in power for 100 (far from ideal) days on Saturday, wants his government to be anything but subdued, say people familiar with the matter. A series of announcements are planned to show voters that he will deliver on the economy, national healthcare, migration and crime. Morgan McSweeney, his new chief of staff who devised Labour’s election strategy, is charged with putting the government on a permanent campaign footing.

The stepped-up cadence, starting with billions of pounds of domestic investment to be confirmed next week at a summit Starmer is hosting in London, is aimed at showing that Downing Street has learned from its mistakes since Labor took power in the July election. won against the Conservatives. The strategy is to tell a more positive and retail-friendly story about the government’s policies, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private plans.

Starmer’s decision to oust his top aide, Sue Gray, in favor of McSweeney was seen as an admission that the Prime Minister was unhappy with the way his team had transitioned from opposition to government after a three-month spell which was dominated by declining economic sentiment, cash and money. accusations of access, infighting among aides, and declining poll numbers.

An Ipsos poll published on Friday showed Labour’s favorability has changed negatively by 13.5 points since the election, while YouGov put the government’s approval rating at just 18%. The new operation led by McSweeney and his two deputies, long-standing Starmer aides Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson, will aim to be more political and develop a strategy around what data and polling shows most benefit Labor’s swing voters brought to power. the people said.

There are hurdles looming, not least of which Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has warned will be a painful budget on October 30. That has led some in the government to doubt whether their political situation will easily improve.

There is an acceptance that change will not happen overnight, a Downing Street adviser said, but that Starmer’s office is determined to demonstrate that the second 100 days have been better than the first. Another predicted less bickering among aides and a stricter crackdown on the types of donations that contributed to Starmer’s plummeting personal ratings.

Foreign visits, of which Starmer has made several in his short time in office, will tell a clearer domestic story on economic growth, defence, security and irregular migration. The most important people the prime minister is speaking to in Berlin are voters in Britain, one of the aides said. Domestically, expect Health Minister Wes Streeting to become much more visible, one official said.

“Our research shows that voters want the government to focus squarely on turning around the economy and improving the NHS,” said Jonathan Ashworth, chief executive of the Labor Together campaign group that McSweeney used to lead. “That’s why both Rachel Reeves’ Budget and Wes Streeting’s NHS reforms will be pivotal moments in the coming weeks.”

In Downing Street, aides said they had already noticed a difference under McSweeney. While Gray — who allies said was the victim of a coup — signed off on every decision and was described by two people as secretive, things are moving more quickly through the system, they said.

At a meeting of government staff late Tuesday, which was also attended by senior staff from Labor party headquarters as part of McSweeney’s campaign focus, Starmer’s new chief of staff warned his colleagues not to get carried away by the pomp and circumstance of government. Their goal, he said, was to do their best for the people who elected them — and make sure they win the next election.

He also promised that issues over adviser pay — a sticking point in Gray’s tenure — would be resolved before Christmas, people in the meeting said.

But optimism that a new No. 10 operation will prove a silver bullet is far from universal. Some Labor ministers, departmental aides and lawmakers have privately raised the point that McSweeney – who was in charge of Starmer’s political strategy while Gray headed the Prime Minister’s office – may have been at the center of the so-called ominous economic story prior to the budget. has been so widely criticized in the business world.

He also failed to stop Reeves from cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners, one person said, a policy widely seen as a major factor in Labour’s poll hit. Several ministers and aides said it was alarming that Starmer appeared to reward those who informed the media against Gray.

Allies of Gray has also hit back at the story about her. The problems in Downing Street went beyond the role of chief of staff, one person said, describing the structure of Starmer’s team as messy. The prime minister needs a senior person who can advise him on the economy, to avoid outsourcing issues like the winter fuel cuts to Reeves, and to more people with experience of governing in general, they said.

Concerns about the departure of Gray, a senior civil servant chosen by Starmer for her knowledge of how government works, go beyond Labour. European Union officials have also questioned what this means for Starmer’s relations with Europe. Although Gray had played a leading role in improving ties between Britain and the bloc, McSweeney was an unknown quantity on the continent, they said.

However, others within Labor were optimistic about the reset and especially the promise of a tougher political advantage. The government is said to be aware of the threat posed to the political right by the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and is relishing the end of the Tory leadership battle on November 2, an official said. Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are in the second round to replace Rishi Sunak, who led the Conservatives to their worst electoral defeat in July.

Having a new opposition leader will help Starmer, said Theo Bertram, a former aide to Labor prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. “Without that referendum it’s just a referendum on whether Starmer is perfect, but once he or she is elected it’s a real choice again,” he said. “I expect Number 10 to be looking forward to Starmer being compared to Jenrick or Badenoch.”

While the first 100 days have been tougher than many in Labor had hoped, it is also true that civil servants never expected a long honeymoon. During the campaign, Reeves and Starmer both warned of their likely fiscal legacy, and the view at the time was that Sunak had triggered the election at least partly because of fears of an even more damaging outcome in a post-Budget vote. The hope among Labor is that Reeves’ budget, while difficult, can still help change the narrative.

“They need to show that they have a purpose that goes beyond fixing the public finances, and that fiscal confidence is the means to an end, not the end in itself,” said former Labor adviser James Morris. “That means giving voters optimism that they will reduce NHS waiting times and crime over the next four years – and then delivering on that optimism.”

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