UNITED NATIONS, Oct 7 (IPS) – Warnings from the United Nations and anti-nuclear activists are becoming increasingly ominous: the world is closer to nuclear war – by design or accident – than ever before.
The current conflicts – and intense war of words – between nuclear and non-nuclear states – Russia versus Ukraine, Israel versus Palestine, and North Korea versus South Korea – add fuel to a slow-burning fire.
And according to a September 27 report in the New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin is quoted as saying that he plans to lower the threshold for his country’s use of nuclear weapons – and is prepared to use his weapons in response to any attack carried out by his country. Ukraine with conventional weapons that pose “a critical threat to our sovereignty.”
The new threat follows a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for long-range missiles, additional fighter jets and drones from the US during his visit to Washington, DC, last month.
According to the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, the U.S. has provided more than $61.3 billion in military assistance “since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.” . $64.1 billion in military aid since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
The US has also used the Presidential Drawdown Authority 53 times since August 2021 to provide military assistance to Ukraine totaling approximately $31.2 billion from Department of Defense (DoD) stockpiles, all of which have led to a nuclear threat from Putin.
When asked whether the nuclear threats looming over continued conflict are real or merely rhetoric, Melissa Parke, executive director of the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)winner of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, tells IPS: “We are currently at the greatest risk of nuclear war since the Cold War. There are two major conflicts involving nuclear weapon states in Ukraine and the Middle East, where Russian and Israeli politicians have made open threats to use nuclear weapons.”
She said there are growing geopolitical tensions between nuclear weapons states, not only between Russia and the US over Western military support for Ukraine, but also between the US and China over US efforts to build a network of alliances around China, and also between the US and China. support for Taiwan – although fortunately we have heard no overt nuclear threats from Washington or Beijing.
“But there is a dangerous trend in Western countries, among commentators and politicians alike, to claim that Russia is bluffing because it has not yet used nuclear weapons. The frightening reality is that we cannot know with certainty whether President Putin – or any leader – a nuclear-armed state will use nuclear weapons at any time.”
The doctrine of deterrence that all nuclear powers follow requires creating such a sense of uncertainty, which is one of the reasons why it is such a dangerous theory. “We don’t know what could cause a situation to get out of hand.”
“What we do know is what could happen if that happens: nuclear weapons have unacceptable humanitarian consequences, and if nuclear weapons are used, no state will have the capacity to help survivors in the aftermath,” said Parke, who previously worked for the United Nations in Gaza, Kosovo, New York and Lebanon and served as Australia’s Minister for International Development.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking at the high-level meeting to commemorate and promote the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, called nuclear weapons “double madness.”
The first madness is the existence of weapons that can wipe out entire populations, communities and cities in a single attack. “We know that any use of a nuclear weapon would unleash a humanitarian catastrophe – a nightmare that transcends borders and affects us all. These weapons provide no real security or stability – only imminent danger and constant threats to our existence.”
The second madness, he pointed out, is that despite the enormous and existential risks these weapons pose to humanity, “we are no closer to their eradication than we were ten years ago.”
‘In fact, we are going in completely the wrong direction. Not since the worst days of the Cold War has the specter of nuclear weapons cast such a dark shadow.”
“Nuclear chatter has reached a fever pitch. We have even heard threats to use a nuclear weapon. There is fear of a new arms race,” Guterres warned.
Meanwhile, Russia is responding to the change in America’s nuclear posture and the billions of dollars the collective West is pumping into the Ukrainian war effort by redrawing its own nuclear “red lines,” according to reports from the Wire Service.
Last week, President Putin announced at a meeting of the Russian Security Council that “Aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state… supported by a nuclear force should be treated as their joint attack.”
Tariq Rauf, former head of Verification and Security Policy, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)Russia is essentially repeating the conditions it has traditionally set in its negative security guarantees to states party to the NPT and to nuclear weapon-free zones (NWFZ).
This, he emphasized, is essentially similar to that of the US in that: Russia will not attack or threaten to attack with nuclear weapons a non-nuclear weapon state that is a party to the NPT or the NWFZ Treaty unless it non-nuclear weapon state A nuclear weapon state attacks Russia in cooperation with another nuclear weapon state.
“Now that we are engaged in a proxy war involving France, Britain and the US (all three nuclear weapons states) and materially assisting Ukraine in attacking locations within Russia’s internationally recognized territorial boundaries, it is not surprising that Russia has warned Ukraine and its NATO backers that long-range fire on Russia, targeting its strategic military bases, could provoke a nuclear response from Russia.”
In response to further questions, ICAN’s Parke told IPS that all nine nuclear-weapon states (the US, UK, France, China, Russia, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea) are modernizing and in some cases expanding their arsenals. ICAN research shows that they spent $91.4 billion last year, with the United States spending more than all other countries combined.
All these countries follow the deterrence doctrine, which poses a threat to the entire world as it is based on the readiness and willingness to use nuclear weapons.
This means that all nuclear weapon states are tacitly threatening the rest of us, as research shows that even a regional nuclear war in South Asia would lead to a global famine that would kill 2.5 billion people.
The good news is that the majority of countries reject nuclear weapons and support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The TPNW is the only bright spot in a world overshadowed by conflict. It came into force in 2021, meaning it is now international law. Nearly half of all countries have signed, ratified or acceded to the treaty, and more will ratify it.
“We are confident that more than half of all countries will have signed or ratified it in the near future. Pressure and encouragement from civil society and campaigners around the world have been crucial in establishing the TPNW and getting more and more countries to join it. .”
Asked about the role the United Nations plays in nuclear disarmament – and whether there is anything more the UN can do – she said: The United Nations has always played a key role in nuclear disarmament.
The very first meeting of the General Assembly called for the elimination of nuclear weapons. Since then, it has been the forum in which countries have negotiated the major multilateral treaties on nuclear weapons, not only the Ban Treaty, the TPNW, but also the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
The Secretary-General continues to provide strong moral and political leadership and uses his voice to convey the unacceptable nature of these weapons and the urgent need to eliminate them.
The UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) also plays a vital role in supporting and facilitating the accession of UN Member States to the TPNW. This week, at the General Assembly’s high-level meeting, we will see another ceremony where more countries will officially ratify the TPNW.
“It is essential that the UN remains a strong voice for the elimination of nuclear weapons, supporting more countries that support the treaty to join it and also reminding nuclear weapon states and their allies that support the use of nuclear weapons of the need to fulfill their obligations and get rid of their nuclear weapons and the infrastructure that supports them,” Parke stated.
Remark: This article is brought to you by IPS NORAM, in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.
IPS UN agency report
Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
