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China has increased its military presence around Taiwan, the country’s navy commander said.
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Admiral Tang Hua told The Economist that China wants it to make a mistake so it can justify a blockade.
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Experts say China could try to take Taiwan by force in the coming years.
China is trying to force Taiwan into making mistakes and looking for excuses to unleash a blockade, Taiwan’s navy commander said.
Admiral Tang Hua told The Economist that China is “slowly but surely” increasing its military presence around Taiwan and is prepared to blockade Taiwan “at any time.”
He described the tactic as an “anaconda” strategy designed to “squeeze the island.”
“They give you extreme pressure, pressure, pressure,” Tang said. “They’re trying to wear you down.”
At the same time, Tang said Taiwan is focused on avoiding confrontation. “The PLA is trying to force Taiwan to make mistakes,” he said, using the acronym for China’s People’s Liberation Army.
Concerns about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan have increased since Phil Davidson, then the US commander of the Indo-Pacific, said in 2021 that China could invade Taiwan by 2027.
Since then, military experts and former defense officials have made similar assessments, with variations on the timeline and approach.
Many point to the rapid modernization of China’s armed forces over the past two decades and the military exercises around Taiwan.
According to recent updates shared by Taiwan defense ministryChina’s planes, ships and vessels now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait and causing the neighboring country to scramble its aircraft.
Experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War said in May that an aggressive Chinese coercive campaign – without war but still threatening – was more likely than a full-scale invasion.
And yet, in its global peace Index In 2023, the Institute for Economics and Peace estimated that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would result in a loss of US$2.7 trillion in world economic activity in the first year alone, equivalent to a 2.8% decline in the global GDP.
Bloombergs modelingMeanwhile, he estimates that a total blockade of Taiwanese and Western sanctions on China could result in a 5% decline in global GDP, with US GDP falling 3.3% and China’s 8.9%.
Earlier this year, Taiwan’s military leadership issued new rules for self-defense.
“We keep our guys in check, not to provoke or escalate,” Tang told The Economist.
According to an unofficial translation the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare at West Point allows Taiwanese soldiers to launch attacks against a target that is clearly identified as a legitimate military objective and that exhibits clear hostile acts or intent, as long as this is consistent with the nature of the unit, the mission and specific tasks assigned by the manager.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo expressed similar concerns last month Financial times that it will become more difficult to spot early signs of a Chinese attack due to China’s growing military activity across the country.
On Monday, as part of the 75th birthday During the celebration of the People’s Republic of China, Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged to achieve the “complete reunification” of China with Taiwan.
“This is where the greater national interest lies, and that is what the people desire,” he said, adding: “The wheel of history will not be stopped by any individual or force.”
Read the original article Business insider
