The United Nations has accused foreign players of extending the war in Sudanmaking it harder for the country to find peace. The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023. It was fueled by two generals fight for power after a failed political transition.
Since then, the conflict has taken on a regional and international dimension. Multiple external actors support the two warring parties with weapons, ammunition and money. The United Arab Emirates emerges as one of the foreign players most invested in the war.
We asked May Darwich, who studied the alliances that Middle Eastern countries are forming in the Horn of Africa, to gain insight into this changing situation.
Why does peace in Sudan remain elusive?
In just over a year of civil war, Sudan has become the scene of one of the world’s worst humanitarian crisesThe country – the largest agricultural producer in Africa and seen as a potential breadbasket for the region – is now on the brink of the world’s worst famine.
According to the UN refugee agencymore than 7 million people have been displaced, nearly 2 million have fled to neighboring countries and 25 million (half the population) are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. It is estimated that more than 20,000 people have been killed since the war began in April 2023.
Yet the prospects for peace are bleak.
To fight shows no signs of abating, but efforts to hold peace talks are failed and the involvement of foreign actors ensures that the violence continues.
Regional powers and neighbors have rallied behind one or the other two generals at the center of the conflict: Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed “Hemedti” Dagalo of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Both warring parties have since accused by the UN of committing war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
Sudan is surrounded by major arms trading centers. Arms and ammunition are smuggled in through countries such as Libya, Chad and the Central African Republic. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Iran are supply the war by these countries. This violates a UN arms embargo against Sudan.
Who are the biggest foreign players?
Various regional and international actors have an interest in the outcome of the conflict.
Egypt and Saudi Arabiafor example, support the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Libya and Russia (via the Wagner Group) support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
The UAE has came into being as a foreign player most invested in the war. It sees the resource-rich, strategically located Sudan as an opportunity to expand its influence and control in the Middle East and East Africa.
Since 2018, the UAE has invested more than 6 billion dollars in the country. This includes foreign reserves in the Sudanese central bank, agricultural projects and a port on the Red Sea. The UAE also has recruited and paid fighters from Sudanwho was recruited mainly from the Rapid Support Forces, to join the conflict in Yemen.
Since 2019, the UAE has undermined Sudan’s democratic transition after the ouster of long-serving President Omar al-Bashir. Abu Dhabi strengthened both its military and paramilitary forces against the civilian wing of the government. With the outbreak of the civil war, the UAE turned to the Rapid Support Forces.
Read more: Sudan is awash in weapons: How the two powers compare and what it means for the war
Abu Dhabi has repeatedly denied his involvement in arming the paramilitary force or supporting its leader Hemedti. However, the proof suggests otherwise and the UAE’s dark role in the war is a “open secret“.
The announcement by American rapper Macklemore the cancellation of an October 2024 concert in Dubai due to the UAE’s role “in the ongoing genocide and humanitarian crisis” brought renewed international attention to Abu Dhabi’s role in the war.
The UAE’s involvement in Sudan underscores a wider pattern in the foreign policy of this sheikhdom over the past decade: working with local forces to secure geopolitical and economic interests in the Middle East and East Africa.
In Sudan, UAE has joined forces with Russia to support the Rapid Support Forces through the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group has been active in Sudan since 2017mainly in connection with resource extraction projects in regions such as Darfur, where Hemedti’s forces were active and became a key ally in these ventures.
According to UN expertsThe UAE has set up logistics operations to send weapons to the Rapid Support Forces through its networks in Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan and UgandaWeapons and supplies were disguised as humanitarian aid.
What’s in it for the UAE?
The interactions and alliances The involvement of the UAE and the Rapid Support Forces reflects the complex and often opaque nature of modern geopolitical maneuvering in Sudan.
Reports suggest that Hemedti acts as a guardian of the interests of the Emirates in Sudan. These interests include gold and agricultural products.
Gold is one of the main drivers of the conflict in Sudan. It allows both sides to fuel their war machines. The UAE is the main beneficiary of this trade. It receives almost all the gold smuggled out of Sudan and has become one center for laundering gold traded on the world market. The latest available statistics show that the UAE officially imported precious metals from Sudan worth approximately US$2.3 billion in 2022.
In addition, the UAE imports 90% of its food supply. Since the global food crisis in 2007, the UAE has made food security one of its top priorities and has begun investing in agricultural land abroad.
In Sudan, two Emirati companies cultivate more than 50,000 hectares in the north, with plans to expand. Agricultural products are then shipped via the Red Sea. In order to bypass Sudan’s port, which was run by the Sudanese government, the UAE signed a new deal in 2022 to build a new port on the Sudan coast, which will be managed by the Abu Dhabi Ports Group.
The The UAE has used the Rapid Support Forces to safeguard its interests and ambitions in the field of food security.
Who and what could break the deadlock in Sudan?
The humanitarian situation in Sudan is deteriorating, but the international community has little done to tackle it.
Besides the inability to collect enough help for Sudan, the international community has not exerted pressure on the UAE. The UN Security Council has failed to credible claims by an in-house panel of experts on Sudan on Abu Dhabi’s involvement.
Human Rights Watch has accused the Rapid Support Forces of committing genocide, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing in the ongoing war. However, there are no prospects so far of holding the UAE to account for its role with the paramilitary force. The country continues to alliances with the west.
If the international community is not prepared to stop foreign actors from fueling the conflict, Sudan risks sliding into a catastrophic humanitarian crisis that will haunt the world for decades to come.
This article has been republished from The conversationa non-profit, independent news organization that brings you facts and reliable analysis to help you understand our complex world. It is written by: May Darwich, University of Birmingham
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May Darwich is not employed by, consulted by, owns shares in, or receives funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond her academic appointment.
